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China
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- The 15th Five-Year Plan (approved by the National People's Congress on 12 Mar 2026) pledged to achieve self-reliance in science and technology through “extraordinary measures.”
- It has a goal for the 100th anniversary of the army (2027).
Cards in hand
- Rare earths and refined minerals (licensing system from 4 Apr 2025)
- The world's manufacturing supply chain
- Import markets such as soybeans
- Position as Southeast Asia's largest trading partner
Weak points
- It has no advanced lithography equipment. ASML's EUV machines are banned from export.
- ASML's share of sales from China fell from 41% (2024) to 33% (2025).
Moves, read through game theory
Tit-for-tat
It answered US chip controls with rare earths. It answered the Dutch seizure of control of Nexperia (30 Sep 2025) with a ban on exports from Nexperia's China plant (4 Oct 2025).
Sources: worldecr
One-shot to repeated games
At the Busan summit (30 Oct 2025), it suspended its October rare-earth expansion for one year and promised to buy soybeans. It is a move that stitches the truce together.
Sources: gCaptain
Counting the cost of closing the chokepoint
Two months after Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks (November 2025), on 6 Jan 2026, China's Commerce Ministry banned exports of dual-use items to Japan for military use.
Sources: KVIA(CNN Business)
Recent facts
- The 15th Five-Year Plan was approved by the National People's Congress.
Sources: CRS IF13204
- US–China summit in Beijing, 14–15 May 2026. President Xi called it a “constructive strategic stable relationship.” Some assessments say no agreement on the main disputes was announced.
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerStrongRare-earth licensing, the world's manufacturing supply chain
- PromiseModerateStitched truce deals together, kept the licensing system
- EmbraceModerateEased the Nexperia ban, White House announcement
Sources: worldecr
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- CRS IF13204
- SCMP 2026.1 (2026-01)
- worldecr
- gCaptain
- Bloomberg
- SCMP
- KVIA(CNN Business) (2026-01-06)
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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