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Indonesia
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- A “free and active” non-aligned policy; 8% growth.
Cards in hand
- Nickel. Refining investment grew after the 2020 ore export ban, mostly from Chinese capital.
- Population; the largest economy in ASEAN
Weak points
- Refining investment is concentrated in China; exports to the US.
Moves, read through game theory
Entering both sides at once (comprehensive diversified hedging)
It became a full BRICS member on 6 Jan 2025. On 19 Feb 2026 it signed a reciprocal trade agreement with the US (tariff 32% → 19%). The same day it attended the first meeting of the US-led “Board of Peace.” It pledged 8,000 troops to the Gaza International Stabilization Force and will take the deputy commander post.
Sources: The Sun · RRI · Intellinews
Resource chokepoint (nickel ore ban) = laying the ladder itself
It made firms bring in factories instead of taking ore. This can be read as a move of laying the ladder itself.
Sources: Steptoe
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerModerateNickel and population, largest economy in ASEAN
Sources: Steptoe
- PromiseModerateJoined BRICS and signed the US agreement
- EmbraceUnknownNo record
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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