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Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- Diversify security guarantees, and transform the economy
Cards in hand
- Oil
- Capital
- Strategic Defense Agreement with the US (18 Nov 2025). It covers F-35 sales approval, Major Non-NATO Ally designation, and a plan for US$1 trillion of investment in the US.
- Mutual defence agreement with nuclear-armed Pakistan (17 Sep 2025).
Weak points
- The Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain depend almost entirely on the strait.
Moves, read through game theory
Double insurance (hedging)
It takes out insurance in two places, the US and Pakistan.
Sources: Intellinews · Wikipedia, Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement
Gulf states urged restraint
Reports say Gulf states dissuaded the US from further strikes on Iran in May.
Sources: Euronews
Divided inside
Saudi Arabia and Qatar lean towards reconciliation; the UAE is cautious.
Sources: Israel Hayom
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerUnknownNo record
- PromiseUnknownNo record
- EmbraceModerateSaudi Arabia-Qatar reconciliation with Iran (reported)
Sources: Israel Hayom
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- Intellinews
- Wikipedia, Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement
- Brookings
- Israel Hayom (2026-07-26)
- Euronews (2026-05-19)
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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