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EU (Germany and France)
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- A seat where the rules are written (AI Act, the Brussels effect) and rearmament (ReArm Europe).
Cards in hand
- Single market
- Regulatory power
- About 210 billion euros of frozen Russian central bank assets. The freeze was made indefinite on 12 Dec 2025.
- France's nuclear weapons
Weak points
- It cannot move as one.
- The “reparations loan” plan backed by frozen assets collapsed. Instead, it agreed on a 90 billion euro loan (December 2025 summit).
- It accepted a 15% tariff from the US (Turnberry, 27 Jul 2025).
- It has delayed its own rules too. It pushed the AI Act's high-risk obligations to 2 Dec 2027 (agreed 7 May 2026, final Council approval 29 Jun 2026).
Moves, read through game theory
Bandwagoning and enforcement
In talks with the US it accepted a 15% tariff; against Russia it pushed back by freezing central bank assets.
Sources: Al Jazeera · Euromaidan
Forward deterrence and fear of abandonment
France announced “forward deterrence” (Ile Longue speech, 2 Mar 2026). It will increase its warheads for the first time since 1992 and involve Germany, Poland and others in exercises. Some analysts read this as insurance against abandonment (fear of being left by the US), one of the two fears in the alliance dilemma.
Sources: CSIS
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerModerateLarge economy, military being rebuilt
- PromiseStrongRules are public and predictable, but it delayed them itself
Sources: CSA
- EmbraceModerateOnly the post-World War II German case
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- Euromaidan (2025-12-12)
- Yahoo/AP
- Al Jazeera (2025-07-27)
- CSA
- CSIS
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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