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Ukraine
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- Preserve its sovereignty; secure security guarantees.
Cards in hand
- Long-range drones (refineries), minerals.
- A reconstruction investment fund agreement with the US (30 Apr 2025). It covers 57 minerals, with a board run 3:3 jointly.
- 26 countries agreed on a "reassurance force".
Weak points
- Dependence on outside funds and weapons.
Moves, read through game theory
Insurance against the fear of abandonment
One analysis reads the minerals fund as a way to create a US "reason to defend". It has the same shape as Taiwan's case.
Sources: CSIS
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerModerateHolds long-range drones and minerals
- PromiseStrongSigned a minerals fund agreement with the US
Sources: CSIS
- EmbraceUnknownNo record
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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