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Russia
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- It cites "security" as the reason for the war in Ukraine.
- It tries to keep exporting energy under Western sanctions.
Cards in hand
- Nuclear weapons
- Energy
- Mutual defence treaty with North Korea (June 2024)
- North Korea officially acknowledged sending troops to Kursk (28 Apr 2025).
Weak points
- Oil exports could be blocked. The US Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil (22 Oct 2025). The two firms account for about half of Russian crude production and exports.
- Refineries are hit by long-range drone attacks.
Moves, read through game theory
Switching off the eyes that count
It stopped taking part in New START (2023). The treaty expired on 5 Feb 2026. Russia said unilaterally that it would keep to the limits if the US does.
Sources: Interfax-Ukraine · Al Jazeera
Recent facts
- New START expired on 5 Feb 2026.
Sources: Interfax-Ukraine · Al Jazeera
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerUnknownNo record
- PromiseWeakEach side blames the other for ceasefire violations (claims of both sides)
- EmbraceWeakNot seen in the 2025-26 record
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- Jakarta Post (2025-04-28)
- globalsanctions (2025-10)
- Interfax-Ukraine
- Al Jazeera (2026-02-11)
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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