Special · Player map
United States
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- The first chapter of the National Security Strategy 2025 (signed 4 Dec 2025) is the Western Hemisphere, and its title is "the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine".
- The strategy states that competitors from outside the hemisphere must not own or control strategic assets in it.
- The AI Action Plan (23 Jul 2025) is titled "Winning the AI Race".
Cards in hand
- The world's largest consumer market
- The dollar
- Advanced chip design (Nvidia)
- Export control rules
- Alliance network
- Big Tech investment: the four major cloud firms plan about US$725 billion in capital spending for 2026 (an industry tally, so written only as "about").
Weak points
- Brakes inside its own institutions. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not grant tariff authority (20 Feb 2026).
- The Section 122 tariff used as a substitute is 10%, limited to 150 days, and took effect on 24 Feb 2026. The legal deadline (24 July) has already passed.
- It depends on China for rare earths.
Moves, read through game theory
Chokepoint + game of chicken
It repeatedly sets tariffs high and then lowers them through negotiation (India 50% to 18%, Vietnam 46% to 20%).
A variant of kicking away the ladder
It blocks top-end chips (Blackwell and Rubin banned) and allowed the H200, one step below, on condition that "25% of sales go to the US government" (December 2025). Some read this as collecting a toll instead of kicking away the ladder.
Sources: Caixin
Musical chairs
It is the side that sets the chairs. It told South Africa it would not attend the 2026 G20 hosted by the US (4 Dec 2025). The seven-country "Pax Silica" declaration (12 Dec 2025) is the inner circle of the AI supply chain.
Sources: EWN · MDDI Singapore
Recent facts
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerStrongMilitary, market, chips
- PromiseModerateIt makes agreements but often resets the terms
- EmbraceModerateIt withdrew tariffs on Brazil and India
Sources: Fortune
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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