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Taiwan
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- Keep the status quo and deter.
- It announced a special defence budget of US$40 billion (2026-2033, "T-Dome" air defence) (26 Nov 2025).
- Target of defence spending at 5% of GDP.
Cards in hand
- TSMC (the "silicon shield")
Weak points
- Some read the chokepoint itself as a possible target.
- US strategic ambiguity.
Moves, read through game theory
Spreading the chokepoint abroad as insurance
A deal with the US was reached on 15 Jan 2026. Taiwan got a 15% tariff and most-favoured treatment under Section 232 for semiconductors. In return it pledged US$250 billion of private investment and US$250 billion of credit guarantees. Some read this as moving part of the chokepoint onto the partner's soil to raise its "reason to defend".
Sources: TrendForce
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerUnknownNo record
- PromiseUnknownNo record
- EmbraceUnknownNo record
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- PBS
- TrendForce (2026-01-16)
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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