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Philippines
October 2026
This page is a reading — “some analysts see it this way.” It is not a verdict on who is right. Based on material as of October 2026; later events are not reflected.
Goals
- Defend its rights in the South China Sea. The basis is the 2016 arbitral ruling (cited by the Philippine national security adviser, as reported).
Cards in hand
- Location on the First Island Chain; US basing agreement (EDCA, expanded in 2023)
- Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan
- The US "Typhon" system has been deployed since 2024.
- ASEAN chair in 2026. It said it would conclude the South China Sea code of conduct within 2026. Chatham House judged a 2026 conclusion unlikely.
Weak points
- Weaker navy and coast guard.
- Fear of abandonment: doubt over how reliable the US commitment is.
Recent facts
- On 10-11 Apr 2026, China set up a floating barrier at the mouth of Scarborough Shoal.
Sources: BusinessDay
- The US "Typhon" system fired live for the first time inside the Philippines, during Balikatan 2026 (5 May 2026).
Sources: Janes
- In July 2026, Manila said a Chinese vessel fired a water cannon at a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal. The two sides' accounts differ.
Sources: Jakarta Post
Long-run superpower qualities
To stay on top for a long time, a power has to be strong, trustworthy, and able to extend a hand again.
- PowerModerateAllies lend it strength
- PromiseUnknownNo record
- EmbraceUnknownNo record
Power: is it strong? · Promise: can it be trusted? · Embrace: does it reach out again after a quarrel?
A summary of evidence from 2025–26 records. Not a ranking, and not praise or blame.
Sources
- Janes
- Chatham House (2025-12)
- BusinessDay (2026-04-16)
- Jakarta Post (2026-07-23)
- Bernama
The film this page belongs to
Will there be a world war?
Will there be a world war? Without taking sides, we read through game theory why things grow dangerous even when everyone is rational. (As of October 2026)
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